David Dreman: It's Time to Buy

There's an endless choice of quality businesses trading at or near liquidation prices.

We have plunged into the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. The leadership of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chief Ben S. Bernanke in fighting it has been sluggish and inconsistent. Although we've just elected a new President and Congress, they will take time to develop policies to stimulate the economy and promote liquidity. What's an investor to do?

First, do not flee the market by selling your quality stocks. Yes, it's the worst bear market since 2000--02, and stocks are trading at valuations not seen in decades, but equities will come back. Second, because credit is subject to unpredictable crunches and it's impossible to guess when this bear will end, don't buy on margin. Third, don't hold shares of companies that will need cash to expand or refinance. There is a good chance they won't be able to borrow.

Fourth, keep your bond maturities very short. When governments face economic crisis, they print money. The magnitude of this crisis suggests that the printing presses will be running around the clock for some time. That means we'll see serious inflation when we emerge from the recession. Long-term bond prices could then drop even more than equities already have dropped. Stocks, by contrast, hold their own over long stretches of inflation.

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